There has been a great deal of handwringing in the book publishing world for the last decade or so over what the Internet is going to do to traditional publishing. And in the last few years, experimentation has increased, with successful authors like Seth Godin by-passing traditional publishing, new ventures like NetMinds from Tim Sanders and team, and the explosion of various kinds of self-publishing. Amazon has become, of course, a huge presence in the book world, now paying advances just like traditional publishing, as well as trying out print-on-demand books and of course the Kindle.
I get questions all the time from prospective authors who wonder whether it’s worth it to publish in the traditional way at all. The quick answer is, for speakers it’s still important, for now. For everyone else, it depends. But everyone wants to know, where’s the book business headed? Who’s going to survive, and what will the terrain look like when the battle is over?
Of course no one knows, but already an outline of what’s going to happen is becoming clearer, and the picture is not cheery for traditional publishers. Following are a few fearless predictions based on my vantage point interacting every day with authors, publishers, agents, and others in the industry.
1. Amazon’s power keeps growing. This one is easy. More and more you’ll read your books in electronic form, and that means the Kindle or the Kindle app. Amazon wields power behind the scenes where it can, and plays nicely when it has to with customers in front. It’s irresistible.
2. Traditional publishers have one chance left: form a relationship with readers. Traditional publishers become increasingly irrelevant and gradually fade away, unless they can form real bonds with readers. What most people don’t understand about the book business is that traditional publishers don’t interest themselves in readers and don’t form connections with them. Publishers make deals with authors and pay attention to distributors. About readers they know next to nothing. By contrast, Amazon knows all about the books customers buy and forms close relationships with them, recommending further purchases, notifying them when a new book by a favorite author comes out, and so on. In an era where the consumer is becoming king, Amazon gets it, and traditional publishers don’t. That spells their doom.
3. An interesting exception to this pattern is Harvard Business Publishing. Harvard may be the one traditional publisher that thrives in this brave new world, precisely because they have formed relationships with their customers. Through the Harvard blogs, through the magazine, and now through tying their book publishing efforts closely to the other activities, Harvard understands its huge cadre of readers and fans and has learned how to connect with them. Watch that space; Harvard is the face of the future.
4. Hybrid self-publishing companies are the other winners. A group of new companies are creating a smart hybrid model that will be the other winner in the future. This model pays the author no advance; in fact, often the author pays the publisher for its services rendered. But it offers some editorial help, and creates a marketing plan for the book, unlike the old model of self-publishing which simply printed books, delivered in boxes to your door. Many authors in the future will use this smart modern makeover of self-publishing.
5. The rest of written word goes online and gets shorter. Increasingly, books become brief online, downloadable ebooks, and this model proliferates wildly. They satisfy our need for speed, instantly available and quickly read. Not to mention easily updated and integrated with video. Here’s the future: New Word City.
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